
Imagine for a moment that you are in a room full of slot machines.
Each slot machine costs a different price to play – there are ones as cheap as 10 cents and ones as expensive as $60.
Each slot machine has a different probability of paying out. The probability is somewhere between 0% and 100%
The payout for every machine is the same. Let’s say it’s $100.
You have a fixed budget – let’s say you walk in with $10,000 and you have 8 hours to maximize your earnings. You must spend all $10,000 in that time.
What would your strategy be? Just walk in and start pulling levers?
Let’s make this a little more interesting – a few more details about this hypothetical situation:
- The Casino is very, very large, has thousands of rooms, and millions of machines
- The Casino can add or remove slot machines whenever they want
- Adding new slot machines can lower the payout % of the other machines
- More than 50% of the machines have a 0% probability of paying out – paying for them is completely wasted money.
- About 20% of the machines not only have a 0% probability of paying out – but they also have a mechanism where when you pull the lever, the front of the machine opens up and a boxing glove on a spring punches you in the face.
Seems like a scene out of a Mr. Beast challenge.
Now, what if I told you that I had a device that could:
- Help you avoid the machines that punch you in the face
- Help you avoid the machines that pay out at 0%
- and plus or minus 10% points predict the payout probability of the rest of the machines
How much would you be willing to pay for that device? Let’s say it costs $2,000 (20% of your budget). Would you buy it?
Now what if you were presented with an alternative device that was much cheaper, but it was made by the Casino.
Which one would you choose?
Now let’s say that there is a salesperson in the casino that tells you the device is overpriced and you should focus your lever-pulls in just 1 room of the casino that only has 100 machines in it (and ignore the rest).
Would you take that deal?
How much more would you pay if the device was accurate within 2% points (vs. 10% points)?
The theoretical maximum you could win in this casino (if you buy the device, pull only the cheapest machines that cost $0.10, and they pay at ~90%) is $7,200,000. (If the device costs $2,000, you have $8,000 → 80,000 pulls × 0.9 × $100 = $7.2M). This isn’t a perfect analogy because there is a correlation between cost and probability – but even if you only pulled the most expensive machines ($60 cost) you’d still take home $12,000 (ROI positive).
If you pull randomly (assuming fairly generous probabilities: ~1% average payout and since you’re pulling randomly you’ll hit a mix of the machines — say $30 average cost) your expected value would be around $333 (which would mean your return on investment was -$9,667), and you’d get punched in the face about 66 times.
The example is a little silly, but this, in effect, is the case for objective decisioning — the kind you can trust precisely because the house didn’t build it and a salesperson isn’t getting paid based on your selection — and the massive advantage it produces if done correctly.







